Ebola Outbreak “Out of All Proportion” and Severity Cannot Be Predicted

submitted by Mike Kraft

homelandsecuritynewswire.com - September 17, 2014

A mathematical model that replicates Ebola outbreaks can no longer be used to ascertain the eventual scale of the current epidemic, researchers find. When applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model, it is “out of all proportion and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks,” says the model developer.

A mathematical model that replicates Ebola outbreaks can no longer be used to ascertain the eventual scale of the current epidemic, finds research conducted by the University of Warwick.

Dr. Thomas House, of the University’s Warwick Mathematics Institute, developed a model that incorporated data from past outbreaks that successfully replicated their eventual scale.

A UW release reports that the research, published by eLife, shows that when applying the available data from the ongoing 2014 outbreak to the model, it is, according to Dr. House, “out of all proportion and on an unprecedented scale when compared to previous outbreaks.”

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CLICK HERE - Abstract - Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks

CLICK HERE - Epidemiological Dynamics of Ebola Outbreaks (9 PAGE .pdf FILE)